Securing America's Future Energy

SAFE Oil Security Index Examines Net Oil Importer Indonesia’s Return to OPEC Cartel

Contact: Ellen Carey
Number: 202-461-2382
Return to group of oil exporters signals Indonesia’s desire to keep close relationships with suppliers; Slowing U.S. production threatens ranking

Washington, D.C. – Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) released today the fourth quarterly installment of its Oil Security Index for 2015, measuring the oil security of sixteen countries around the world.

This latest Index update spotlights Indonesia, which after officially announcing its intention to rejoin OPEC as a full member at the organization’s June 2015 meeting, has been formally invited to do so. Indonesia originally withdrew from OPEC in 2009, after years of declining production and increased demand had turned the country into a net importer. Reining in costs despite growing demand is critical for the archipelago, which ranks 13th in this quarter’s installment of the Index due in large part to its oil-intensive economy and high spending and dependence on oil imports.

Indonesian Energy Minister Sudirman Said justified the decision to rejoin, saying “It’s important to be closely connected with the market, and OPEC members are among the bigger producing countries.”

The United States ranked eighth in this quarter’s installment of the Index, though that position is threatened by increasing oil consumption and slowing domestic production. While the shale boom is responsible for a drastic decrease in the amount of oil imported from other countries, the sustained low price environment is wearing on the industry, resulting in thousands of layoffs and a projected decline in output of almost 0.2 mbd in 2016.

“Low oil prices and growing demand are setting the stage for a future oil price spike,” said SAFE President and CEO Robbie Diamond. “Investment in new production has all but disappeared, and as the market tightens, we will become increasingly vulnerable to supply outages in other, often unstable oil-producing countries. While domestic oil production is undoubtedly beneficial for U.S. jobs and consumers, we must separate ourselves from the inherent volatility of the global oil market through increased efficiency and the use of alternative fuels if we are to truly improve U.S. energy security for the long term.”

The 16 countries of the Oil Security Index are measured on key indicators, such as their structural dependence on oil, economic exposure to the global oil market, and capacity to respond to oil supply disruptions.

This Index update also includes a spotlight on China, which has seen demand growth stumble alongside a summer of financial uncertainty that roiled global markets and injected additional volatility into the price of oil.

Additional highlights from the latest Oil Security Index include:

  • Global demand, driven in part by continued low oil prices, rose 1.8 mbd year-over-year, its largest increase since Q3 2013.
  • Unplanned oil supply outages averaged 3.2 mbd in Q2, with 2.5 mbd of that in OPEC nations.
  • OPEC continues to add to global supply, posting an increase of 1.0 mbd quarter-over-quarter and 1.4 mbd year-over-year.
  • U.S. production increased 0.3 mbd quarter-over-quarter and 1.3 mbd year-over-year, the lowest y-o-y increase since Q4 2013 and a possible indication of a production slowdown.

The sixteen countries of the Oil Security Index rank as follows:


  1. South Africa
  2. Japan
  3. Germany
  4. France
  5. United Kingdom
  6. Australia
  7. United States
  8. China
  9. Mexico
  10. Canada
  11. Brazil
  12. Indonesia
  13. India
  14. Saudi Arabia
  15. Russia

To learn more about the Oil Security Index, a project of SAFE and Roubini Global Economics (RGE), visit The online tool is updated quarterly and contains an interactive map featuring multiple indicators that provide an overall understanding of a nation’s complete oil security landscape.


About Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE)

Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) is a nonpartisan organization that aims to reduce America’s dependence on oil and improve U.S. energy security to bolster national security and strengthen the economy. SAFE advocates for expanded domestic production of U.S. oil and gas resources, continued improvements in fuel efficiency, and in the long-term, breaking oil’s stranglehold on the transportation sector through alternatives like natural gas for heavy-duty trucks and plug-in electric vehicles. In 2006, SAFE joined with General P.X. Kelley (Ret.), 28th Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, and Frederick W. Smith, Chairman, President, and CEO of FedEx Corporation, to form the Energy Security Leadership Council (ESLC), a group of business and former military leaders committed to reducing U.S. oil dependence.


About Roubini Global Economics (RGE)

Roubini Global Economics (RGE) is an independent, global macro-economic strategy research and country risk firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. RGE research interprets global economic signals into practical macro-strategy insight for a wide range of financial and policy professionals. RGE’s Country Risk product offers a unique approach to measuring country risk, delivering analysis that is consistent across time and ignores market noise. Our research approach broadens our clients’ understanding of global economies and markets by illustrating vulnerabilities and risks; giving them constructive frameworks for clarity and helping them to make more informed decisions. RGE is headquartered in New York and also has an office in London.

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